Recession may be near bottom, new data suggest

06-24---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (AP) — New signals the recession could be nearing a bottom emerged Wednesday in figures showing that orders to U.S. factories surged last month for everything from computers to aircraft and that a gauge of business investment rose by the most in nearly five years.

Still, an unexpected drop in new-home sales in May made clear that any rebound in the housing market, and the broader economy, likely will be long and slow.

Economists said the two reports showed an economy no longer in free-fall but still unable to mount a sustained recovery from the longest recession since World War II.

Hours after the Commerce Department figures were released, policymakers at the Federal Reserve decided to leave a key interest rate unchanged at a record low between zero and 0.25 percent, where it has been since December. Wrapping up a two-day meeting, the central bank repeated a pledge to leave rates low "for an extended period" to give the weak economy time to heal.

Though energy and other commodity prices have risen recently, the Fed said inflation will remain "subdued for some time." But Fed policymakers offered no new assurances that they would step up their purchases of government bonds and mortgage securities to try to drive down rates on consumer debt. That rattled bond investors who fear the prospect of higher interest rates. So did the Fed's observation that commodity prices are rising.

The mention of higher prices hit the Treasury market because the value of returns on fixed-income investments can erode quickly if inflation occurs. Stocks also fell after the Fed's announcement. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 23 points at 8,299.86. Broader stock averages ended the day higher, though.

The 1.8 percent increase in durable goods orders in May was far better than the 0.6 percent decline that economists expected. It matched the rise in April, with both months posting the best performance since December 2007, when the recession began.

Orders for non-defense capital goods, a proxy for business investment plans, jumped 4.8 percent, the biggest increase since September 2004. That could signal that businesses have stopped trimming their investment spending.

The back-to-back monthly gains in orders for durable goods — items expected to last at least three years — were further evidence that a dismal stretch for U.S. manufacturers may be nearing an end. But analysts say any sustained rebound is months away.

Rebecca Blank, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs, cautioned against reading too much into the big jump in durable-goods orders because the data can be volatile. But she said the report appears to show that the recent plunge in activity has subsided.

"The $64,000 question is how long we will be in this flat period," Blank said in an interview. "You don't want to call too much of a recovery yet."

Private economists also were cautious, in light of rising unemployment, record levels of home foreclosures and spreading global economic weakness that's depressing U.S. exports.

"The U.S. factory sector still has a long way to go and is facing the headwind of one of the deepest global contractions in a generation," said Cliff Waldman, an economist with the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight, was a bit more optimistic. He said the economy was nearing a turning point "from recession to recovery."

< p>The other government report showed new home sales dropped 0.6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, from a downwardly revised April rate of 344,000. Economists had expected a sales pace of 360,000 last month. Sales were down nearly 33 percent from a year ago.

The median sales price, $221,600, fell 3.4 percent from a year earlier but was up 4.2 percent from April.

Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods posted a 1.1 percent rise in May, also better than the 0.4 percent drop that had been expected. Demand for transportation products rose 3.6 percent. That reflected a 68.1 percent jump in orders for commercial aircraft, a volatile category that had fallen 1.4 percent the previous month.

The big increase in aircraft offset further weakness in the troubled auto sector. Demand for motor vehicles and parts fell 8.1 percent in May, signaling disruptions from the bankruptcy filings at Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp.

Orders for machinery rose 7.7 percent last month. Demand for computers and related products surged 9.4 percent.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, has posted the worst six-month stretch in more than 50 years. The government is scheduled to revise the first-quarter GDP figure Thursday, but analysts expect the overall figure to stay at a decline of 5.7 percent.

Many economists say that GDP in the current quarter will show a much smaller decline, around 2 percent, with growth returning in the second half of this year.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press.

10 Things To Look Out For With Bank-Owned Property Contracts

DISCLAIMER: Nothing within this post is intended as legal advice or comprehensive answers to all questions, nuances, etc. that may come up in particular transactions. Consult an attorney for guidance. The following points were derived from the material given to attendees as part of yesterday’s REO contracts presentation.


Practical Considerations of REO Contracts

1.The buyer is generally getting the benefit of their bargain up front in the price - not in the ease or speed of the transaction
2.The seller is a corporate entity, which is both positive and negative. You don’t have to deal with an emotional seller that has unrealistic expectations about property value, etc. On the other hand, sometimes big corporate sellers “do what they want.” These banks are selling properties all over the U.S. making it difficult to conform to local custom and practice
3.Approximately half of all REO transactions do not close on time. Have a plan B should settlement be delayed (e.g. don’t schedule contractors to come out to the property the day after settlement, don’t settle on a Friday especially not before a long holiday weekend, etc)
4.Some bank sellers take the position that if the REO addendum is silent on an issue addressed in the original offer, that is a conflict and the REO addendum controls/prevails (e.g. appliances, home warranty, seller closing cost credit, etc). If something that you “agreed upon” in the original offer/contract is not listed/addressed in the REO addendum, the bank seller may argue that it’s not part of the contract
5.Even though the property is sold “as is”, there may be room for negotiation on a case by case basis
6.HOA Disclosure package - by law, the bank seller should provide this
7.Residential Property Disclosure Statement - by law, the bank seller is exempt from providing this
8.Make sure you change the locks immediately after you take possession of the property
9.Consider a longer rate lock period on financing from your lender - about 50 percent of REO transactions do not close on time
10.The latest revision to CRESPA (Consumer Real Estate Settlement Protection Act) states that the buyer’s right to choose a settlement agent/title company can not be varied or waived by any agreement - including an REO addendum (effective July 1, 2009)
Once again, this is not intended as legal advice. Every bank’s addendum and every transaction is different. I’ve even seen different versions of an REO addendum from the same bank.

Point is…be smart, read the entire addendum and know how the addendum affects the transaction and you as the buyer (even if that means consulting a real estate lawyer). But also know that bank sellers “do what they want” so even though it may seem “wrong” or “unfair”, there may be little, if any chance of getting the bank to change the language in the addendum.

Purchases of bank owned properties as with any real estate transaction is best handled by an experienced attorney that specializes specifically in real estate law. As your Realtor I can recommend a local attorney to guide you through the contracts.

How To Receive A Cash Gift For Downpayment

Tighter mortgage guidelines since late-2008 are forcing home buyers to make bigger downpayments. Anecdotally, the change has led to a surge in buyers taking gifts of cash from family members.

If you’re among those accepting a cash gift from family, it’s important to know that you can’t just deposit the money in your bank account.

There is a proper way to accept a cash gift and it requires 3 distinct steps:



1.Complete and sign an acceptable gift letter


2.Document the gifter’s withdrawal of funds with teller receipts


3.Document the giftee’s deposit of funds with teller receipts


See, mortgage lenders pay close attention to gifts-for-downpayments. For one, lenders have to make sure that downpayment cash is “clean” (i.e. not laundered). And, secondly, they want the gift to really be a gift and not a loan-in-disguise.

This is why lenders will often require that a signed, dated letter accompany the home loan application.

As an example:



I am the [relationship to recipient] of [name of recipient] and this letter serves as evidence that I am gifting [name of recipient] [amount of gift] to be used for the purchase of the home at [complete address of property].

This is a gift — not a loan — and there is no expectation of repayment.

Signed,
[Signature of gifter]



To further appease lenders, gift recipients should make sure that gift funds are not commingled at the time of deposit. If the gift is for $12,000, for example, the bank’s deposit slip should indicate that a $12,000 deposit was made — nothing more, nothing less.

Don’t add a random $50 check to the deposit, in other words. If you have a separate deposit to make, make it as a subsequent transaction with its own receipt.

It’s also worth noting that gifting funds between family members can create both legal and tax liabilities. If you’re unsure about how donating or receiving a gift may impact you, call or email me directly. If I can’t help you with your questions, I can refer you to somebody that can.

The $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Program Expands: 5 Things to Know

from U.S. News:

As the historic housing plunge rumbles on, Uncle Sam is offering a fresh incentive to get first-time home buyers off the sidelines. U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan on Friday unveiled a policy change that would provide home buyers with quicker access to a recently enacted first-time home buyer tax credit. Buyers would be free to put the funds toward closing costs and a portion of their down payment. The federal government hopes that the measure will stimulate housing demand, something desperately needed to help mop up the glut of unsold inventory.


Here are five things you need to know about the policy change:

1. Less waiting: President Barack Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus plan—which was signed into law in mid-February—included a tax credit worth up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers. These buyers, however, couldn't get their hands on the cash until after tax season. The new HUD initiative would enable these borrowers to obtain short-term loans allowing them to tap the tax credit before going to closing. "Families will now be able to apply their anticipated tax credit toward their home purchase right away," Donovan said in a news release. "What we're doing today will not only help these families to purchase their first home but will present an enormous benefit for communities struggling to deal with an oversupply of housing."



2. Initial 3.5 percent: The measure, however, comes with several key limitations. First, it only applies to Federal Housing Administration mortgages. More importantly, the short-term loans can't be used to pay for the minimum 3.5 percent down payment that FHA loans require. Instead, the loan can be used for closing costs and to finance the portion of the down payment that exceeds the 3.5 percent threshold. The administration opted to have borrowers come up with the initial 3.5 percent themselves to ensure that buyers have "some skin in the game," which may reduce the likelihood of default, says Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant and a former HUD official. In so doing, federal officials had to strike a delicate balance. "On the one hand, you want to make sure that homes are affordable to first time home buyers, but you don't want to set the bar so low that people who can't afford homes are buying homes," Glaser says.

3. Closing costs: Despite these limitations, the benefits of the program should not be overlooked, says Guy Cecala, publisher of the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance. "The down payment is probably the biggest chunk of change you have got to pay [when purchasing a home], but it is not the only thing," Cecala says. "Even with a typical FHA loan, there are probably $3,000 to $4,000 in closing costs, title insurance, and [additional fees]." By chipping in toward such costs, the program "could just grease the wheels for a couple more people to get into FHA," says Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com. At the same time, borrowers who use the short-term loan to increase the size of their down payment could obtain a lower mortgage rate.

4. Impact? Cecala doesn't believe the new measure is a game changer for the battered real estate market. "I think it will be helpful to a first-time home buyer," he says. "Is it going to generate a lot more housing activity? No." Cecala argues that would-be buyers remain on the fence largely out of a concern that a home will lose value after the purchase. Such concerns will continue with or without the policy change.

Glaser, however, is more optimistic. "This is the missing piece," he says. "Home prices are coming down significantly in some markets, interest rates at historic lows, and now, by addressing cash on the table at closing, I think that borrowers who wouldn't have otherwise been in the market are going to feel more confident about investing in a home."

5. State efforts: The details of the HUD initiative come after several states have enacted similar programs. Missouri, for example, has had a program in place since January that enables home buyers to put the tax credit towards closing costs or their down payment.

This combined with the volatile mortgage rates should get anyone still sitting on the fence contemplating purchasing their first home to realize that NOW is what they've been waiting for.


Please contact me to help you find and close on your perfect home here on Long Island

Mortgage Rates Hit 25-Week High

Mortgage Rates Hit 25-Week High
Mortgage rates across the board jumped this week, with conventional mortgages reaching their highest point so far this year.

Freddie Mac reports a jump in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a 25-week high of 5.29 percent during the week ended June 4, up from 4.91 percent the prior week. As recently as two months ago, rates had been 4.78 percent.

The 15-year fixed rate also increased, rising to 4.79 percent from 4.53 percent, with Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft indicating that the gains follow a surge in long-term bond yields.

Meanwhile, the five-year adjustable mortgage rate climbed to 4.85 percent from 4.82 percent, and the one-year ARM surged to 4.81 percent from 4.69 percent.